Program evaluation, impact assessment studies and methods


My policy-relevant research includes many studies aiming to identify the impacts of alternative policies, programmes, new technolgies, and shocks. A variety of methods have been applied including various types of bio-economic and economy-wide modelling approaches where data are limited, where there are general equilibrium or dynamic effects that are hard or impossible to tease out of cross-sectional or household panel data. My more recent work has focused on use of econometric methods to identify impacts from specific policy interventions like irrigation investments, land certification, and input subsidies as well as changes in market access where non-parametric and parametric methods can help to identify the impacts when reasonable identification strategies can be developed. A mixed methods approach can in many cases be optimal in a second-best world where social experiments are infeasible or only a partial solution.

Published papers and books:


Katengeza, S. P. Holden, S. T. (2021). Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach. Agricultural Economics 52 (1), 157-171.Link


Holden, S. T., Tilahun, M., Vorlaufer, T. and Engel, S. (2020). The effects of gender empowerment training on within-group gender differences in performance and overall group performance: A Pre-Analysis Plan. CLTS Report No. 1/2020. Center for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway.Link


Holden, S. T. (2020). Gender dimensions of land tenure reforms in Ethiopia 1995-2020. CLTS Working Paper No. 6/2020. Center for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway. 


Gebru, G. Holden, S. T. and Alfnes, F. (2020). Adoption of agricultural technologies in the semi-arid northern Ethiopia: A Panel Data Analysis. CLTS Working Paper No. 3/2020. Center for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway. Link


Gebru, M., Holden, S. T. and Tilahun, M. (2019). Tenants’ land access in the rental market: evidence from northern Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics,, doi: 10.1111/agec.12484. Link


Holden, S. T. and Tilahun, M. (2018). Gender Digital Divide and Youth Business Group Leadership. CLTS Crking Paper No. 5/2018. Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway. Link


Holden, S. T. and Ghebru, H. (2016). Land tenure reforms, tenure security and food security in poor agrarian economies: Causal linkages and research gaps. Global Food Security 10: 21-28. Link


Bezabih, M., Holden, S. T. and Mannberg, A. (2016). The Role of Land Certification in Reducing Gaps in Productivity between Male- and Female-Owned Farms in Rural Ethiopia. Journal of Development Studies 52(3): 360–376. Link




Holden, S. T. and Fisher, M. (2015). Subsidies promote use of drought tolerant maize varieties despite variable yield performance under smallholder environments in Malawi. Food Security 7(6): 1225-1238. Link


Debela, B. L., Shively, G. and Holden, S.T. (2015). Does Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program improve child nutrition? Food Security 7(6): 1273-1289. Link


Ghebru, H. and Holden, S.T. (2015). Technical Efficiency and Productivity Differential Effects of Land Right Certification: A Quasi-Experimental Evidence. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 54 (1): 1-31. Link


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2014). Input Subsidies, Cash Constraints and Timing of Input Supply. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(1): 290–307. Link


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2013). Who Benefit from Malawi's Input Subsidy Program? Forum For Development Studies 40(1), 1-25. Link


Holden, S. T., Otsuka, K. and Deininger, K. (Eds.) (2013). Land Tenure Reforms in Asia and Africa: Impacts on Poverty and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. August 2013. Link


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2012). Do Fertilizer Subsidies Crowd Out Organic Manures? The Case of Malawi. Agricultural Economics 43, 301-312. Abstract


Gebregziabher, G. and Holden, S. T. (2011). Does Irrigation Enhance and Food Deficits Discourage Fertilizer Adoption in a Risky Environment? Eveidence from Tigray, Ethiopia. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics 3(10), 514-528. Link


Gebregziabher, G. and Holden, S. T. (2011). Distress Rentals and the Land Rental Market as a Safety Net: Evidence from Tigray, Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 42, 45-60. Abstract


Holden, S. T., Deininger, K. and Ghebru, H. (2011). Tenure Insecurity, Gender, Low-cost Land Certification and Land Rental Market Participation. Journal of Development Studies 47(1), 31-47. Link


Gebregziabher, G., Namara, R. E. and Holden, S. T. (2009). Poverty reduction with irrigation investment: An empirical case study from Tigray, Ethiopia. Agricultural Water Management 96, 1837-1843. Abstract


Holden, S. T., Deininger, K. and Ghebru, H. (2009). Impacts of Low-cost Land Certification on Investment and Productivity. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91 (2):359-373. Abstract


Benjaminsen, T. A., Holden, S. T., Lund, C. and Sjaastad, E. (2009). Formalisation of land rights: Some empirical evidence from Mali, Niger and South Africa. Land Use Policy 26: 28–35. Abstract


Holden, S. T., Otsuka, K. and Place, F. (Eds) (2008). The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa: Impacts on Poverty, Equity and Efficiency. Resources For the Future Press, WashingtonD.C. Link


Bezu, S. and Holden, S. T. (2008). Can Food-for-Work Encourage Agricultural Production? Food Policy 33(5): 541-549. Abstract


Deininger, K., Ali, D., Holden, S. T. og Zevenbergen, J. (2008). Rural land certification in Ethiopia: Process, initial impact, and implications for the other African countries. World Developmen 36(10): 1786-1812. Abstract


Holden, S. T. and Bezabih, M. (2008). Gender and Land Productivity on Rented Out Land: Evidence from Ethiopia. In Holden, S. T., Otsuka, K. and Place, F. (Eds.). The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa: Impacts on Poverty and Efficiency. Resources For the Future Press, Washington D.C. Link


Unpublished papers:

Araya, G. B. and Holden, S. T. (2017). Is Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program Enhancing Dependency? CLTS Working Paper No. 5/2017. Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway. Link


Bethelhem Legesse Debela, Gerald Shively and Stein T. Holden. Does Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program Improve Child Nutrition? CLTS Working Paper No. 1/2014. Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway. Link


Ghebru, Hosaena and Stein T. Holden (2013). Links between Tenure Security and Food Security: Evidence from Ethiopia. CLTS Working Paper No. 2/2013. Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway. Link


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2011). Do Fertilizer Subsidies Crowd Out Organic Maures? The Case of Malawi. Paper submitted for the EAERE conference in Rome, June 29-July 2, 2011. Link


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2010). Too Poor to be Efficient? Impacts of the Targeted Fertilizer Subsidy Program in Malawi on Farm Plot Level Input Use, Crop Choice and Land Productivity. Report to NORAD. Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences. Link to paper. Link to blog briefs


Holden, S. T. and Lunduka, R. (2010). Impacts of the fertilizer subsidy program in Malawi: Targeting, household perceptions and preferences. Report to NORAD. Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences. Link to paper. Link to blog briefs


Holden, S. T., Deininger, K. and Ghebru, H. (2010). Impact of land registration and certification on land border conflicts in Ethiopia. Paper presented at the World Bank Annual Conference on Land Policy and Administration in Washington DC April 26-27, 2010. Link


Bezu, S., Holden, S. T., and Barrett, C. B. (2010). Does Nonfarm Economy Offer Pathways for Upward Mobility? Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås. Link


Tatwangire, A. and Holden, S. T. (2010). Changes in Human Capital and Impacts on Household Welfare in Uganda. Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås. Link (Paper 2, p. 90-121)


Tatwangire, A. and Holden, S. T. (2009). Modes of Land Access and Welfare Impacts in Uganda. Paper presented at the 27th IAAE Conference in Beijing, China 16-22 August 2009. Link


Holden, S., Xu, J. and Jiang, X. (2011). Collective versus Individual Property: Tenure Security and Forest Tenure Reforms in China. CLTS Working Paper No. 4/2011. Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway. Link


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